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(firmenpresse) - Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG, Merchant&Investment Banking / Sonstiges

30.06.2010 13:21

Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News,übermittelt
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich.

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Silvia Quandt Research GmbH I Bernhard Eschweiler I
eschweiler(at)silviaquandt.de I +49 69 95 92 90 93 51 I www.silviaquandt.de

China leading indicator for April: + 0.3%

Financial markets lead by the Shanghai stock exchange reacted negative to
the revision of the April leading economic indicator for China from the US
Conference Board. The headline figure was revised from +1.7% to +0.3%.

The markets interpreted this as a change of China's economic momentum from
overheating to sharp slowdown.

This is unlikely.

- First, the correction itself was one off and limited to the
construction sector. More specifically, the 'floor space started'
component was revised from +1.3% to -0.1%. This is actually good news
and shows that the government's efforts to tame the real estate boom
are starting to bite.

- Second, the leading indicator is brand new. It has predicted cyclical
turning points in the past using historical data, but its predictive
power going forward is untested. In general, short-term indicators in
China as well as the equity market have a mixed if not poor track
record predicting the direction of the economy (see also In-between the
lines June 17. 2010).

Taking a step back, the figures should be read as a partial step toward the
soft-landing that the government is aiming for. But while the government
seems to have some success in taming the real estate bubble (which is good
for the sustainability of the long-term growth outlook), there should be no

doubt that it remains focused on sustaining solid growth.

Last week's decision to let the currency appreciate demonstrates the
government's confidence that it is on the right track. Specifically, it
shows that the government is confident that China can compete even with a
stronger currency. But it also shows that the government is putting more
emphasis on domestic demand as a future source of growth.

Disclaimer

This analysis was prepared by Bernhard Eschweiler, Economic Advisor, and
was first published 30 June 2010, Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Grüneburgweg
18, 60322 Frankfurt is responsible for its preparation. German Regulatory
Authority: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin),
Graurheindorfer Str. 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt.

Publication according to article 5 (4) no. 3 of the German Regulation
concerning the analysis of financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung):

Number of recommendations There of recommendations for issuers to which
from Silvia Quandt Research investment banking services were provided
GmbH in 2010 during the preceding twelve months

Buys: 51 30
Neutral: 22 3
Avoid: 6 1

Company disclosures

Article 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz)
in combination with the German regulation concerning the analysis of
financial instruments (Finanzanalyseverordnung) requires an enterprise
preparing a securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest
with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of the
analysis. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist, in particular, if an
enterprise preparing a security analysis:

(a) holds more than 5 % of the share capital of the company or companies
analysed;

(b) has lead managed or co-lead managed a public offering of the
securities of the company or companies in the previous 12 months;

(c) has provided investment banking services for the company or companies
analysed during the last 12 months for which a compensation has been or
will be paid;

(d) is serving as a liquidity provider for the company's securities by
issuing buy and sell orders;

(e) is party to an agreement with the company or companies that is the
subject of the analysis relating to the production of the recommendation;

(f) or the analyst covering the issue has other significant financial
interests with respect to the company or companies that are the subject of
this analysis, for example holding a seat on the company's boards.

In this respective analysis the following of the above-mentioned conflicts
of interests exist: none

Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG, and its affiliated
companies regularly hold shares of the analysed company or companies in
their trading portfolios. The views expressed in this analysis reflect the
personal views of the analyst about the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this
analysis. It has not been determined in advance whether and at what
intervals this report will be updated.

Equity Recommendation Definitions Silvia Quandt Research GmbH analysts rate
the shares of the companies they cover on an absolute basis using a 6 -
12-month target price. 'Buys' assume an upside of more than 20 % from the
current price during the following 6 - 12-months. These securities are
expected to out-perform their respective sector indices. Securities with an
expected under-performance to their respective sector index are rated
'avoids'. Securities where the current share price is within a 5 % range of
the sector performance are rated 'neutral'. Securities prices used in this
report are closing prices of the day before publication unless a different
date is stated. With regard to unlisted securities median market prices are
used based on various important broker sources (OTC-Market).

Disclaimer This publication has been prepared and published by Silvia
Quandt Research GmbH, a subsidiary of Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG. This
publication is intended solely for distribution to professional and
business customers of Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG. It is not intended to be
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completeness of the data or information contained in this report. The
opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgement at
this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Prior to this
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companies and changed subsequently. This report is for information purposes
only; it is not intended to be and should not be construed as a
recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the
securities mentioned in this report. In compliance with statutory and
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Quandt&Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH or its affiliates may have
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securities and is therefore not included in this report. Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG and Silvia Quandt Research GmbH, its affiliates and/or clients may
conduct or may have conducted transactions for their own account or for the
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affected by changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not indicative
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risks should consider an investment in any issuer or market discussed
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Specific notices of possible conflicts of interest with respect to issuers
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law: None

This publication is issued in the United Kingdom only to persons described
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Frankfurt am Main, 30.06.2010

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